One million registered voters from Botswana, out of a population of about 2.5 million, participated in the election on 30 October 2024 to elect parliamentarians who would choose the president on their behalf.
The shifting political landscape and alliances have made this election uniquely different from all post-independent elections because the ruling party is on the verge of losing power, at least on paper analysis.
Fallen diamond global prices, its over-dependence on it and a frustrated population that is blaming the rulers of the day for economic turmoil, the Botswana ruling party, which has been in power since 1966, stoke the current political agitations.
The unemployment rate is gaping at over 28%, and youth joblessness is at 38%, which provides ample room for political realignment based on socioeconomic strata.
The ruling party dipping deep into national coffers is expected to squeak to a slim majority, although others suspect foul play will allow the current rulers to stumble to a finish line and form a government without including the opposition.
Still, fissures in the opposition may also catapult the ruling party to cling to power, a compelling factor that I will revisit much later in this narrative.
While the former president, 63-year-old Mokgweetsi Masisi, a former school teacher and an ex-employee of UNICEF, had negotiated a better deal with the South African diamond mining giant, globally deteriorating diamond prices have left the economy sputtering, hitting hard on most of the economically disadvantaged.
In the 2019 elections, the ruling party secured almost 67% of the Parliamentary seats, paving the way for forming a government. The then main opposition, the Umbrella for Democratic Change, garnered 26% of the seats.
In this election, there were four major political parties.
The third political party was formed by the immediate president of Botswana, Ian Khama. Of interest, the current president, Masisi, was a protégé of Khama, but their fallout happened no sooner than the latter was sworn in office.
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Mr. Masisi began blaming his predecessor for all the country’s economic problems. President Masisi began incarcerating Khama’s closest allies over corruption and abuse of power-related offences, igniting the anger of his mentor.
Khama fled to South Africa in 2022 but returned this year ready to promote the Botswana Patriotic Front, a new political party he had helped to form.
Messr Khama is facing criminal charges of money laundering and illegally owning firearms, the charges he has consistently denied as politically motivated.
And his supporters believe so. Khama’s appeal to the electorate mirrors Donald Trump’s nostalgic economic prosperity during their respective tenures.
Khama left the nation enjoying booming times that his successor had whittled down in a few 6 years!
The fourth political party is called Botswana Congress Party which remains a nondescript and unknown quantity, it is not expected to shake the foundations of this election but could play powerbroker role of a minor role depending how many parliamentary seats it wins.
At the time, President Masisi was persecuting former principal officials in the Khama government; he, too, faced accusations of official graft.
He is being peppered over for helping himself with a government farm through dubious means, and his wife, too, has been allegedly closing government tender deals worth tens of millions of dollars between 2020 and 2022.
Political influence peddling and nepotism have frequently been mentioned as funnelling grand corruption and incompetence into the government under President Masisi’s supposedly stern watch!
The election in Botswana is a winner-takes-it-all.
This is where the ruling party may walk away with many seats because the opposition is divided.
The ruling party does not need to win over 50% of the parliamentary seats to be declared a winner in the 61 constituencies which are up for grabs.
Remember the Kenyan election of 1992? The combined vote of the opposition presidential candidates was more than the votes Moi of Kanu had bagged. Still, that anomaly was statistically insignificant since the winner took it all.
President Moi was declared the winner, and the ethnically divided opposition had to learn quickly to thaw their distaste for each other before they were able to marshal enough unity in 2002 to defeat Kanu.
With a well-oiled campaign machine, the ruling party may win many seats but may fail to pass the muster of 50% of the Parliamentary seats, and it may be forced to form a government of national unity with one of the opposition parties like the South African ANC did with the D.A party.
It is unlikely that the ruling party will form a government of national unity with Mr. Khama’s political vehicle, knowing the bad blood simmering between the two protagonists.
In many ways, the Botswana election mirrors the latest South African one. Khama is a metaphor for Zuma, who defected from the ANC to form his own political party, Umkhonto We Sizwe.
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Zuma did not win the election but had inflicted a severe wound on the ANC that it lost her parliamentary majority.
It looks like Botswana is gonna having the South African election Deja-Vu.
The election result may take two to three days before it is announced, mocking Tanzania elections that take two weeks or more before announcing the presidential verdict!
The Khama political party is likely to come second, and whichever political party comes third and fourth are likely to be courted by the ruling party to form a national unity government.
This situation could be a precursor of the ruling party facing future butterflies of their own.
Depending on how global diamond prices fare and the national perceptions of official graft, the next elections could be perplexing for the ruling party to win.
Economic hardships and hopelessness may push the electorate into a cliffhanger.
As most African gaining independence political parties, the Botswana Democratic Party may find itself unfamiliar with deploying extrajudicial devices to stay in power, enjoining CCM and others to cling to power by whatever methods are available.
This election will offer the acid test of the resilience and credibility of the Botswana democracy, which has been applauded for nurturing an upper-income nation that is peaceful, rich, and respectful of the institutions of governance.
It comes as little surprise when the election boss was asked whether the election commission was plotting to rig an election in favour of the ruling party, the answer was a tirade of defensiveness!
Only the results of this political standoff will tell whether allegations of bias have any basis. Ghana, like Botswana, used to compete to claim bragging rights of a renaissance on the African continent.
Not anymore, as institutionalized African culture has tugged those countries into a pit mired with massive official graft, insensitivity to the plight of the poor and a compulsion to narcissism.
Once the ruling parties lose the mandate to govern, they are determined to usurp power and prolong their illegal stay in power.
Ghana is done, and now the question that we are waiting to be answered in this Botswana election is: Will Botswana defy Ghana and remain the beacon of hope for meaningful reforms in Africa, or will it slide into a path of dictatorial rule, autocracy, and anarchy?
We may not have to wait long over this!
