House Speaker, Hon. Tulia Ackson does not need to win the Mbeya Town constituency to continue to be the speaker as per our constitution, but losing the parliamentary seat to the opposition will leave her in a very weakened position.
All her global feats will come down tumbling like a house of cards.
Somehow she has to fight and win it. Depending on how the opposition will organize themselves, she will have a tough fight to keep her seat.
Looks like a three-way horse race pitting her against a concerted duet of rapper Mr. Sugu and the current TLS president, Mr Boniface Mwabukusi.
Before the general elections, there will be a small matter Chadema has to resolve between incumbency versus fresh blood.
While the former MP for Mbeya Town constituency Mr. Sugu is no longer the MP but his campaign is careening towards an incumbent while his most immediate rival Boniface Mwabukusi will be regarded as a newcomer qualifying as fresh blood.
This discourse interrogates the political undertow that will shape this mind-boggling election.
House Speaker, Hon. Tulia Ackson needs to find a way and retain her seat but she has one major problem: sinking likeability factor.
She has struggled to relate with the younger voters who mistrust incumbency. Her political nightmares are not entirely personal but have everything to do with CCM longevity.
There is more fatigue on CCM than her personally. Majority of the youth in Mbeya Town constituency have shown their dissatisfaction with CCM for a long time now.
In 2015, introducing the then CCM presidential flag bearer, Magufuli, when addressing the Mbeya Town voters he was being heckled with “…Lowassa, Lowassa, Lowassa….” chants.
The youth did not give a hoot that Edward Lowassa too was from CCM few weeks ago before he decamped to the opposition, Chadema following his name was not shortlisted among the five CCM members vying for winning the presidential nomination.
So, Lowassa had not decamped to Chadema on matters of ideology or principles but had done so to keep alive his personal presidential ambitions that were shot down by CCM top brass.
The youth had all that in hindsight but were too desperate to support any candidate so long as was not from CCM, and had a credible chance of winning. In many ways, the youths were pragmatic to pick anything that could change the then current situation.
Change candidates subscribe in all four corners the “politics of identity” the youth have fully embraced. Suffocating poverty has left them with frustration, anger and loathing against the rulers of the day who happened to be CCM.
Magufuli had to keep speaking amidst a noisy and hostile crowd.
All that tells me, Mbeya Town constituency is a Chadema stronghold, and CCM will struggle to keep it under her wraps.
However, all is not lost for CCM because Chadema has a bigger axe to grind: who between Rapper, Mr. Sugu and Mr Mwabukusi should be their nominee?
Mr, Sugu may feel most qualified because he still nurse resentment and a grudge about how the 2020 elections were conducted.
He still complains that he was massively rigged out, and the 2025 elections could be an opportunity to set the record straight.
Mr. Sugu just like his boss Mr. Mbowe everything about Chadema politics are personal matters to adjudicate.
Mr. Sugu is aware Mwabukusi too is angling the same position, and is leading the race. Mwabukusi shot to fame over his staunch posture over the leasing of Dar-es-Salaam port to DP WORLD. He became a national sensation and now his political heft may be too much for Mr. Sugu.
If Chadema nomination are done in free, fair and transparent manner Messr Mwabukusi could be the undisputed king of Mbeya Town politics.
Mr. Sugu is a nice guy but is unprepared intellectually to the task ahead. Mbeya Town voters have seen first hand what Mwabukusi can do to change the dynamics of our politics to the better.
And, they can’t wait to send him to the Augusta House where his first class legal and communication skills will come to play.
Mwabukusi, as far as I am aware of, does not belonging to any political party but joining political parties is the easiest thing to do in the era of competitive politics.
During mono party politics, joining CCM required to undergo monthslong indoctrination training that would realign the membership seeker with CCM values, tenets and mission statement.
No longer those requirements are there as all political parties have become invitational to widen membership appeal.
Therefore, Mwabukusi can join or he may have already joined Chadema to qualify to run for Mbeya Town constituency.
For Tulia Ackson to retain her parliamentary seat, she needs the opposition divided. In such situation, Mwabukusi runs under ACT-WAZALENDO while Sugu runs under Chadema umbrella.
What will happen the opposition vote will be divided, and Tulia Ackson will sail through.
This scenario is likely to repeat throughout the whole country if Chadema and ACT-WAZALENDO fail to synchronize their act together. They may end up facing the Kenyan predicament of 1992 where the opposition combined vote was more than that of KANU but petty issues combined with greed for power led to their collective painful loss before the much subdued former president Daniel Arap Moi.
Paradoxically, the election of Chadema national Chairperson will impact how the opposition can unify their act, and prioritize their intense dislike of CCM before self interest.
If you have been paying attention to Rev. Msigwa recent broadsides you can see he is still bitter and smattering over the way he was rigged out from being Chadema zonal Chairperson.
He blames the current Chairperson Freeman Aikael Mbowe for all of his political troubles. Assuming Rev. Msigwa is squeaking the gospel truth then if Mr. Mbowe wins the national Chairperson there is very huge possibility his sidekick Mr. Sugu will prevail against whomever will vie to win the Chadema nomination for Mbeya Town constituency.
If that happens, there will be irreconcilable bad blood and Mwabukusi will shift his loyalty to ACT-WAZALENDO who will be waiting in the wings to mop up the pieces, and they are very good at it. You can call them professionals in reaping where they have not sowed and at the chagrin of other political parties. Their troubles tend to be a blessing in disguise for ACT-WAZALENDO.
Once Mwabukusi has moved to ACT-WAZALENDO what was once an outside chance of bagging the parliamentary seat for Mbeya Town becomes almost a certainty for Tulia Ackson.
She will only need to cobble up 40% of the vote to maintain the status quo ante.
She is very capable of doing just that! And, that should be more than enough to keep her seat, and save herself from the embarrassment of losing her coveted seat.
This narrates why the Chadema national elections verdict potentially carry seismic impacts to many a political career inside and outside Chadema.
Those who have been in power suspect the Tundu Lissu’s triumph will terminate their political careers. And, may explain why they are resisting change because they will not have someone who will help them to sustain their careers notwithstanding the voters’ preferences.
If that materialize, Tulia Ackson will be the chief beneficiary.
Strangely, both Tulia Ackson and Mr. Sugu are the incumbents in the forthcoming elections and out of fears of political neophyte may unwittingly conspire to block Mr. Mwabukusi from sailing to parliament against the Mbeya Town voters’ wishes.
It is a game of politics, nothing personal. Each player is fighting for relevance in an erratic political arena.
As matters of tidbits, CCM seriously pondered about dividing Mbeya Town constituency into two hoping their candidates will have a better chance of winning but those plans were reluctantly shelved for now because the political narratives there cannot be defrauded by gerrymandering.
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