There is already a sideshow at Kawe constituency leading to the parliamentary elections in 2025. Even before political party nominations were carried out, my political instincts had already informed me that at Kawe constituency, there had been unfinished business since the 2020 election dispute. There were claims and counterclaims of massive rigging in the 2020 parliamentary elections that pitted Halima Mdee against Rev. Gwajima.
I have reasons to suspect the duo will duel again next year in an attempt to settle past perceived grievances, grudges and resentments. But, there is also a Tundu Lissu “political wind of change” earthquake to consider.
This article examines what is behind the curtain and how Halima Mdee and Reverend Gwajima are positioning themselves to win that coveted Kawe parliamentary seat. This is their story in my own eyes.
Halima Mdee and other 18 Chadema women special MPs’ political fortunes are tied to the umbilical cord with the Chadema elections that will be conducted in late January next year.
I say so because depending on who wins the national Chairperson of Chadema between Tundu Lissu and the incumbent chairperson, Freeman Aikael Mbowe, Halima Mdee and her sorority’s future in Chadema will take a horrific twist.
While the former despise Halima Mdee and others’ political opportunism, Mbowe’s empathy towards them is palpable.
Assuming Lissu beats the odds erected against him and wins the Chadema chairperson, Halima Mdee and her fraternity will have to seek a green pasture elsewhere.
Lissu’s no-nonsense approach intimidates even his foes wherever they are, and Mdee knows her path back to parliament through Chadema will be locked, possibly forever.
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All 19 Chadema special seats MPs will have to move on, most likely to their former Chadema buddy Zitto Zuberi Kabwe. Zitto is a founder of ACT-WAZALENDO and the former foreign minister Bernard Membe, who is now deceased.
Zitto created ACT-WAZALENDO out of necessity after Mbowe had edged him out from Chadema to terminate Kabwe’s political ambitions.
Mr. Kabwe was angling to push out Mbowe and become Chadema chairperson. Mbowe kicked out Zitto Kabwe and his sympathisers, including Professor Kitila Mkumbo, now a cabinet minister for national planning. Kabwe’s strategy is easier to discern: cashing in on pillow fights in other political outfits.
He has been successful in forging a political tent of the whiners. From CCM, he capitalized on the fallout of the CCM presidential elections in 2015 to swoop on Membe.
Before that, Kabwe had figured out the CUF tussle involving Seif Sharif Hamad and Professor Lipumba could nourish his new political vehicle, ACT-WAZALENDO.
Somehow, he convinced Seif Sharif Hamad that his political future and those he supported were not in CUF but in ACT-WAZALENDO.
Kabwe promised to reward CUF – Hamad, who will decamp to his political baby by wielding powers of similar size and stature to those they once had in CUF. Having run out of options, Seif Sharif Hamad accepted Zitto’s offer.
With a stroke of a pen, Kabwe bled CUF white. While the political obituary of CUF is yet to be written in gold, it is fighting for his dear life in an intensive care unit, ICU.
What Professor Lipumba used to ridicule CCM had visited him. Lipumba and most CUF luminaries loved to say the CCM end would be like that of cockroaches.
In his own words, this is what Lipumba used to forewarn: “...kifo cha CCM ni sawa na kifo cha mende… miguu juu na kichwa chini.” When Membe felt sidelined by CCM and was being disrespected, Kabwe popped up and gave him an offer he couldn’t resist: ACT-WAZALENDO would allow him to gun down the union presidency in 2020.
Membe, who was nursing presidential ambitions for a long time, capitulated. Membe shifted his political allegiance to ACT-WAZALENDO and left CCM until his political nemesis’ death.
He reconciled with CCM. When Membe moved to ACT-WAZALENDO, he took many CCM members with him, and most of them didn’t return to CCM.
ACT-WAZALENDO has been sleek in exercising predatory instincts, knowing when to groom and swoop her conquests and when to wait for the right moment before attacking.
When other political parties face a reckoning moment, ACT-WAZALENDO picks the broken pieces and rebuilds them to suit her political calculations.
In this light, we can glean how ACT-WAZALENDO will show up to rescue the political careers of all 19 Chadema estranged special seats MPs.
I will be surprised if the groundwork has not already been laid down. It is a mouthwatering opportunity that Kabwe will not pass away. Those 19 Chadema women MPs are a force to reckon with and can win parliamentary constituencies in their own right.
Even if they cannot win all, they should be able to add at least 5 to 7 constituencies. That should be a triumph in the eyes of many.
Never forget that more MPs translate into more clout regarding government subsidies and seniority in the Parliament, which leads to collecting even more chairpersons for parliamentary oversight committees.
ACT-WAZALENDO harbours zero ambitions of ousting CCM, unlike Chadema, who believes the next general elections are there to win. The ability of ACT-WAZALENDO to moderate her political ambitions reassures CCM it is a “friendly fire”.
However, there are also Chadema seismic moves that should not be ignored. If Lissu wins the Chadema elections, the Lissu wave will catapult many Chadema aspirants to parliament.
Many voters will place their faith in Lissu and power the candidates he sponsors to go to Parliament. That will complicate the path of Mdee and Reverend Gwajima marching back to parliament.
Gwajima has recently woken up to the challenges of retaining his parliamentary seat but has been seeking voters’ sympathy more than anything else.
One of his “on-site meetings” with his Kawe electorate had learnt of how the primary court had shortchanged an owner of a house who ended up losing his house to his tenant under excruciating circumstances.
Similar efforts were also recorded at Kunduchi Mtongani. Gwajima would love to restore what was lost without reforming the judiciary. In his own words, he retorted something that sounded like he had given up on courts but could still fix what was stolen.
The problem for Reverend Gwajima is a failure to notice he will be treating the symptoms while leaving the disease to spread all over the body. What is trying to offer the victim is what I call analgesia: A painkiller but not the medicine.
In this case, he should have advocated for the Mexican-style judicial reforms that would have evicted the bad guys and replaced them with the good guys.
At the heart of the Mexican judicial reforms is restoring the electorate’s power to elect judiciary members. Reverend Gwajima should consider these reforms rather than persisting on window dressings.
Mdee has been keeping her cards close to her chest. But I can discern what she is up to from her latest moves. First, she understands the path to parliament through women’s special seats is now out of her reach, and it is what I call a hammerlock.
So, her path back to the house is upon bagging the Kawe constituency. Her parliamentary contributions have been seminal, which should be part of her strategy to win the war in identity politics.
In all four corners, she has identified herself as a crusader of the hoi polloi. That should resonate well with the voters. She has also been locking her step with senior CCM bigwigs.
That could help scuttle plans to rig her out at the ballot box. I have a sneaky hunch that after bungling the 2020 and 2024 elections, CCM is looking to repair her broken social contract with the voters. If this is true, Mdee could be one of the beneficiaries.
Again, politics being unpredictable as they have always been, Reverend Gwajima and Mdee’s political stakes could be tied to who triumphs in the Chadema elections.
Both should pray that Tundu Lissu loses and stays in Chadema, or they may have lost political relevance. I am beginning to sense that the next election could be compounded by the Lissu factor, like that of Kenneth Matiba in the Kenyan elections in 1992 or an eclipse of Augustine Mrema in 1995. It is my gut feeling.
It looks like the political fortunes of Reverend Gwajima and Mdee are locked with who will lead Chadema after the January elections more than what they are doing themselves.
Both need fervent prayers, and I am unsure whom I should pray for, though! They are increasingly impressing me as birds of a father flocking in the same miasma, seemingly beeping different tunes.
