The first term of Dr. Samia Suluhu Hassan was shambolic, to say the least, but as we are moving closer to the elections, she is beginning to get the foundations right! We had many issues to complain about. From leaders’ opulent retirement benefits, money-guzzling healthcare insurance, the state of disrepair of our democracy and, in particular, the latest refurbished elections law, to many similar commissions. Then came Saudi Arabia’s investment in Bagamoyo Port, which was worth $10 billion. This investment is a game changer and will have a profound positive impact on the economy we should not take it lightly or for granted. This article looks at the ups and downs of the four years or so with Dr. Samia Suluhu Hassan at the helm.
When President Samia Suluhu Hassan took over from President John Pombe Magufuli, the transfer of power was tenuous because she was not earmarked as his natural successor. Those holding senior positions in the government and the CCM were caught napping. It was like being hit by a sledgehammer. In CCM’s well-held traditions and practices, the Vice President’s portfolio is not designed to prepare or groom a successor. Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan should understand that template.
There was a reluctance to accept that a female would become Her Majesty, the president and commander in chief. It had never happened since independence, knowing Tanzania is essentially a patriarchal society. We still have a long way to go before we can accept a woman holding the topmost position in the government. Therefore, the abrasive nature of President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s coming to power shaped her attitude and behaviour towards interacting with the instruments of power and the key players themselves. This is not strange at all, all pioneers do face similar resistance and objections. She, a pioneer, too, is no different!
In order to navigate the booby traps and teething issues of a first woman President, she had to please those who were closer to her than those who were afar. This finding helps to understand why she kept the prime minister, the house speaker and most of the Magufuli appointees. She also resuscitated former President Kikwete’s close allies and confidants’ political and civil service careers that Magufuli had brought to a brutal end. However, she had cautioned them she would tolerate no rival. If she feels one of her appointees was campaigning on her back she would not hesitate to relieve him or her of the duties so that person can be free to advance his or her political ambitions undeterred. Then, they will meet at the ballot box. It also explains why she acquiesced to please anti-reformers within CCM lest she be perceived as ceding too much ground to the opposition.
That, too, dilates why pleasing past and current leaders with “goodies” suited those personal survival cold calculations. She never stitched up her government but heavily borrowed from her successors’ acolytes. It was a strategy to hold on and pass through the bridge of the 2025 elections, and then her true character will flourish. Will it? I do not know for sure, but I have a sneaky feeling every leader ultimately wants to stamp out their own character, authority and personality. There is fatigue, too, of being a wannabe. After the election, she will crawl out of the cocoon she is currently snuggling in, reclaim her personality and stamp out her global vision.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s critics are correct when they lambast her for frustrating constitutional reforms. It is a fact that she has stonewalled us on constitutional reforms, and therefore, we have a reason to sulk and complain bitterly. But we have to understand in her first term she was introducing herself, and it will be unfair and bereft of foresight to accuse her of throwing guardrails on the path to democratic reforms. It is also true the election law reforms were a laughing stock because nothing tangible had changed. The evidence is the 2024 TAMISEMI elections, which echoed the elections of 2019 in full throttle. TAMISEMI, which will run the general elections in October 2025, has lost our confidence by more than 100%. It is just too politicized to manage our elections. That is a fact!
However, the Chadema election clarion of “No reforms, no elections” is ambiguous, cowardly and a non-starter. The brand new chairperson of Chadema, Tundu Lissu, has been bringing us mouthfuls of what amounts to flip-flopping. On the one hand, he is reassuring us that the clarion is not calling for an election boycott, but on the other hand, he has been threatening not to take part in the elections! That is not the leadership we are looking for at this hour of calling. In all of Africa, where opposition trampled the ruling parties, it was not because of the luxury of the playing field being levelled but despite lacking it! Chadema and Tundu Lissu, in particular, are not ready for prime time. The gospel truth ought to come out now as bitter a pill as Chadema may despise to swallow. Maybe they will be ready next time around, but this time around, they shouldn’t be trusted with the state house.
I listened carefully to Chadema vice chairperson Heche during his homecoming party after winning that docket, but his speech was more suited to a leader in opposition than gunning for the state house. Heche was critical of CCM governance, as he should be, and was suffused with empty promises disconnected from reality. He said under Chadema’s reign, life would be good but did not say how Chadema would make it so! That shouldn’t reassure us that Chadema is ready for the big time. It is not prepared, and it is as simple as that.
For Chadema to be taken seriously, they must stop blaming the lopsided election laws for their under-par election performance. Both opposition in Botswana and Senegal triumphed despite the election laws standing against them. Chadema needs to scour ways of ensuring votes will be counted and appropriately tallied before election declarations are made. That will be a stringent test of leadership. If they can mobilize voters who will provide leadership in invigilating the elections properly, then I will be the first to apologize for getting this evaluation wrong. However, my appraisal of Chadema’s leadership is not prepared to provide leadership despite very bad election laws.
Tundu Lissu, after winning the Chadema elections, has become intellectually arrogant and overweighed by hubris. He is now talking down the possibility of Chadema and Act WAZALENDO forming what Kenyan Sheng will dub a dream “unbwogable’ team. Lissu has been questioning the relevance of Chadema, even needing to cobble up a coalition. This implies he deems Chadema can flatten CCM’s tyre on her own, which is chimaera. Defeating CCM at the ballot box is easier said than done. It is also crucial for Tundu Lissu to remember winning the Chadema elections is not by any stretch of the imagination winning the presidential elections. The roadblocks CCM has erected against the opposition should push him to seek support from everywhere, including in CCM, where there are also leadership wrangles, albeit muzzled to quietness, for now.
CCM’s DNA is to win elections by hook or crook, and they will not accept losing without trying anything to salvage a win, notwithstanding the electorate’s wishes. This is not the time to play an uninformed swashbuckler. It is time to wear the helmet of humility and buckle yourself with the harsh reality that of all elections, this is the one CCM is not prepared to lose.
Chadema and Tundu Lissu need Act WAZALENDO more than Act WAZALENDO needs Chadema. Some form of coalition is needed to forge a winning outfit. Asunder, they will fall; however, united, at least they stand a chance of outperforming themselves and making CCM run for her political stocks. How the internal democratic process will be carried out to pick the most popular candidates in the coalition tent will be a litmus test of how badly they want CCM off their backs.
Back at Bagamoyo Port, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has taken ideas from her two predecessors and corrected mistakes they had committed. President Magufuli was incensed that his predecessor, President Jakaya Kikwete, had okayed a long-term lease agreement with a Chinese company that had basically encroached on our sovereignty. The Chinese agreement had banned any port development in the Indian Ocean, killing any form of competition in the process. We all know that when competition is eliminated, low quality and inflated prices get the better of us.
Saudi Arabia, under the new leadership of Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, the de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is determined to diversify its economic base given the finite fossil resources are facing challenges from renewable energies and environmental protection pushbacks. Saudi Arabia is a genuine investor who, in this project, is different from DP WORLD and has come to reap where they have not sown. Saudi Arabia’s investment of about $10 billion is a “scratch to a finish” project without sovereignty encroachment hangovers. It embraces competition while opening floodgates of employment. It is an investment that we should all support. It will need about 400,000 hectares of land, but the affected people will be fairly compensated prior to the project’s commencement.
My visceral assessment of Tanzania’s political landscape informs me that Chadema are not ready to govern but should be given an opportunity to provide alternative views in the parliament and local governments where they truly belong. President Samia’s second term will not be bogged down with the pressure of ingratiating everybody in the CCM tent just for the sake of getting herself re-elected to her non-existent third term. She will be in a better position to pitch a team that will oversee economic management in better ways than we have seen in her first term. The team she has right now is a stopgap for something better in the future. I believe so! In her second and last term, CCM and those holding senior posts will have zero leverage. They will buck for her or get the boot without resorting to another second chance since there will be none. Yes, none! They will depend on her more than she currently depends on them.
She deserves a second chance to fix what is rotten in our system of governance. As she was the vice chair of the “unconstitutional” constituency assembly, she is a wearer of the shoe and, therefore, knows where it pinches. She even herself said so:
“Mimi nilikuwa Makamu Mwenyekiti wa Bunge la marekebisho ya Katiba…ninajua umuhimu wa katiba mpya…..subirini kwanza…isubiri kwanza….”
After finishing her second and last term, she will have no excuse for not fulfilling this conspicuous promise. Had I been counselling the opposition, I could have advised them to enter a “holy agreement” with CCM: They will support her in this election on condition she facilitates a constitutional amendment process. They may draw up specificities to seal the deal.
I know even before giving my piece of advice the opposition will least listen to me! All they crave is power, which is fine but should be within certain well-defined limits. Sometimes, it is better to take one step backwards to gain two confident steps forward. Supporting President Samia Suluhu Hassan now will assure the CCM that Tanzanian politics will not necessarily be ugly. We can make politics honourable and better for all. We should all agree that elections must have a meaning, not harbour ritualistic affinities where the electorate has lost all faith in it. We need to restore faith in the ballot box and to achieve that, all of us ought to make some tangible sacrifices. The consequences of annulment of the meaning of elections are too horrific even to contemplate.
Will our power-hungry opposition listen for once? I seriously doubt it, but what do I really know? Maybe I know too little to qualify for anything!
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
