Under the blazing sun in Dar es Salaam, local fishermen band together to fish for the dwindling fish population in the Indian Ocean—a vital resource for their livelihood. The encroachment of climate change on marine ecosystems has led to declining fish stocks, a critical challenge for a nation where fisheries form the backbone of nutrition and economic security.
In other parts of Tanzania, the effects of climate change manifest starkly through temperature anomalies observed in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions.
Trends indicate an increase in extreme warm days and nights, alongside a gradual rise in extreme cold instances, underscoring the variability and unpredictability of weather patterns.
The Climate Context in Tanzania
The challenges facing Tanzania are emblematic of the wider global climate crisis. As one of East Africa’s largest countries, with a population exceeding 55 million, Tanzania’s economy is deeply tied to its natural resources.
Agriculture alone contributes approximately 24% to GDP and employs 75% of the workforce.
However, 70% of natural disasters—including droughts and floods—are linked to climate change, putting the country’s economic and social fabric under considerable strain.
The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative ranks Tanzania as the 34th most vulnerable and 54th least prepared country to address climate impacts.
Projections for Tanzania’s future are sobering. By 2060, average annual temperatures could rise by 1.0°C to 2.7°C, and by 2090, the increase may reach 4.5°C.
While rainfall is projected to increase on average, it is expected to occur more often as intense, heavy events, reducing its year-round availability for agriculture and consumption.
The Impact on Key Sectors
The decline in major water bodies, such as Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika, is symptomatic of a larger water crisis.
Prolonged droughts have diminished river flows, shrinking wetlands and reservoirs, while intense rains cause devastating floods.
Communities relying on these resources for irrigation, drinking water, and hydroelectric power are left increasingly vulnerable. The economic toll is considerable: estimates suggest annual adaptation costs could exceed $100 million.
Agriculture, primarily rain-fed, is one of the most vulnerable sectors. Shifts in agroecological zones mean traditional crops like maize may no longer thrive in some regions.
Farmers, however, are innovating by adopting drought-resistant crops such as cassava and engaging in crop diversification to maintain food security and incomes. Initiatives like introducing irrigation technologies and reducing reliance on chemical inputs enhance resilience.
Climate change threatens Tanzania’s energy sector, particularly hydropower, which accounts for a significant portion of electricity. Persistent droughts reduce dam water levels, leading to blackouts and power rationing.
The energy mix is expected to shift towards thermal sources by 2031, increasing greenhouse gas emissions unless mitigated by renewable investments.
Rising temperatures are directly causing the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria into highland areas traditionally free of mosquitoes.
Flooding exacerbates cholera outbreaks, while malnutrition—driven by declining agricultural productivity—weakens populations, making them susceptible to diseases.
Rising sea levels and warming waters have resulted in coral bleaching, habitat loss, and saltwater intrusion. Coastal communities are witnessing the destruction of infrastructure and displacement, with small islands such as Maziwe in Pangani already submerged.
Tanzania’s Climate Change Strategy
Recognizing the severity of these challenges, Tanzania has implemented comprehensive policies, including the National Climate Change Strategy (2012) and the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA).
These frameworks aim to mainstream climate resilience across all sectors. Key interventions include improving water and land-use management, promoting renewable energy, and building capacity for disaster risk reduction.
At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, global leaders reaffirmed the need to make climate finance accessible to developing nations like Tanzania.
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Such funding is vital for achieving Tanzania’s ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 10–20% by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario.
Community and Civil Society Action
Local initiatives have also played a pivotal role. Programmes supported by organizations like Irish Aid have introduced sustainable practices in agriculture and pastoralism.
For example, smallholder farmers adopt organic and climate-smart crops like sunflower and sesame. Similarly, pastoralists diversify into horticultural crops such as tomatoes and watermelons to adapt to changing rainfall patterns.
Climate change presents an existential challenge to Tanzania’s economy, ecosystems, and people. The impacts ripple across every sector, from diminishing fisheries to declining agricultural yields and energy insecurity.
However, the country’s proactive strategies and grassroots resilience offer a pathway to mitigate these effects.
Global collaboration, particularly through climate finance and technology transfer, will ensure that Tanzania—and countries facing similar threats—can adapt and thrive in a rapidly changing world.