I have a blueprint of how CHADEMA can defeat CCM possibly for good. It is a five-point manifesto for winning elections when the tables are turned against the opposition. This strategy is based on what is now widely acknowledged as a SWOT analysis. It is a critical analytical methodology that leaves nothing to chance, evaluating strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. This discourse dives deep into what CHADEMA has to do to oust CCM from her perch.
This five point blueprint starts with understanding of CCM weaknesses, first and foremost. Chadema, so far, has committed a huge mistake of focusing on CCM’s strengths.
It is a defeatist approach.
It is in appreciation of weaknesses of your rival where you can summon motivation to overcome seemingly an impossible task.
David, when facing Goliath, refused to be intimidated by Goliath’s strengths. David focused on the Goliath’s weaknesses ignoring his strengths.
All Israelis could not stand before Goliath because they were cowed by his strengths.
When David cased the situation he saw Goliath was a wreck training waiting to happen. So, he told the king Saul that he was going to slay the giant Philistine.
Everybody was shocked because David was short and of no physical brawn. King decided to dress him like a warrior.
David tried those military attires and saw they were an impediment to the task ahead. He told the king of Israel that he could barely move, so he undressed them, took five alluvial stones and a slingshot and the rest was history.
CCM’s weakness is her overwhelming unpopularity. Chadema should tap into and weaponize it as the first tool to end CCM long rule in Tanzania.
Spend more time telling voters what Chadema will do to the country instead of trolling CCM. Voters know CCM is self-serving and does not care. So reminding them again and again is a waste of time.
The second point is learning from history. The last three elections have given us a trove of lessons that should be taken seriously.
In the general election of 2010, 2015 and 2020, Chadema made one fundamental mistake. She relied on NEC to provide her with election results.
Stealing from Tundu Lissu own parlance, Chadema was “dead wrong.” Who will forget Chadema presidential candidate Wilbard Slaa who after losing to Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete of CCM in 2010, he was waving documents that he claimed had shown he had won. Todate, very few know what was contained in those documents.
In 2015, Edward Lowassa who has cut his political teeth with CCM should not be faulted for not knowing how to protect his vote.
I still anguish at what he had said in his last meeting a day before election at Mnazi mmoja grounds. This is what he had said: “…….kazi yenu mkajaze maboksi ya kura …kuiba kura wataiba kweli lakini kazi ya kulinda kura niachieni mimi.”
As the votes were being counted and tallied, Lowassa came out demanding NEC to halt the exercise as it was mired in cheating, forgeries and outright theft of his votes.
He wrote a long letter to NEC describing in great detail how his votes were being stolen across the country. NEC ignored his objections, and announced CCM presidential candidate Magufuli won.
Lowassa did not know how to protect his vote. Lowassa to his credit had assembled a national tallying centre akin to the one in Nigeria.
However, the police quickly arrested his staff and their equipment was confiscated. The police claimed foreigners who had no work permit were working there but never explained why they had arrested Tanzanians and their equipment who were tallying the election results.
Nine months later all who were arrested were released minus their equipment indicating police were merely interested to stop the counting and tallying of votes that would have questioned where NEC was getting the results she was declaring.
In 2020 elections many believed Tundu Lissu won the presidential vote against CCM presidential candidate Magufuli. Years after the election had passed, one reporter had asked Tundu Lissu whether he believed he had won.
Tundu Lissu’s answer indicated he still believed in NEC to do him justice! This is what he had said: “……mimi sijui kama nilishinda uchaguzi kwa sababu had leo website ya NEC haijachapisha matokeo kwa kila jimbo la uchaguzi kama sheria ya uchaguzi inavyowataka.”
Lesson number two, Chadema ought to establish counting and tallying centres both locally and abroad to stop the police from interfering with their work.
Encourage every citizen to become part of that tallying centre by forming their own WhatsApp groups dedicated to screenshotting the images of polling station results and collecting all images of the forms of every polling station and tally them.
Such groups should collaborate with Chadema candidates in their own wards who too will have WhatsApp groups of candidates in each constituency.
All candidates running for MP should relay results into a national WhatsApp group where they will be published in the App and website. CCM will slow the Internet during that time so everybody should be encouraged to download and install those free VPNs to keep themselves updated of the developments on the ground.
Lesson number three transparency is a golden key to unlock CCM defeat.
We have all applauded Chadema in the way they have recently produced one of the most transparent election since independence.
Chadema now have the experience of how to run and supervise a clean election. They need to transfer those skills into the general election this year.
First, I must applaud Tundu Lissu for retaining John Mnyika. He will be Chadema MVP. Mnyika has a formidable brain power to organize, collect and disseminate the election results as they begin to come out in each and every polling station according to their tallying centers.
Chadema will need to coordinate this effort with AP. AP – Associated Press is the most trusted news outlet when it comes to reporting elections.
Chadema should encourage them to view the results that they had collected from polling stations and compare with those declared by INEC.
Chadema needs an app and website specifically designed and prepared to record and publish election results for each polling station.
Chadema should prepare a team of all Tanzanians to be invigilators of election. From ensuring no election is conducted without poling agents have been permitted to do their job.
All polling stations where polling agents have been barred or abducted voters should refuse to vote.
Every voter should be an I-reporter recording in their phones everything that is transpiring in the polling stations and post them online I’m the WhatsApp groups that they can be hooked into the app.
DEDs should be taken to court every time they disqualify Chadema candidates. DEDs should be shown there will be no easy lunch this time around.
When results are being tallied and announced at the office of DEDs all voters should show up to ensure no foul games are allowed.
During the election day, voters should be encouraged to have vigilantes armed with phones that record any strange events and post them online.
Suspicious people should be barred from entering polling stations. All polling agents should be well remunerated lest CCM buy them off.
Lesson number three transparent means everybody has a role to play, not only leaders and those they have hired. Opaque will deliver a defeat to Chadema.
Lesson number four unity is everything. It was consoling to see a new leadership determined to bring all factions on board.
That means those 19 women MPs should be forgiven as a matter of expeditious resolution. Politics are messy and this one is not gonna be different. The last thing Chadema needs are internal energy sapping conflicts. United they will win divided they will be fall.
So close up this loophole now. Of those 19 MPs, at least ten are full blown politicians who can win constituencies under Chadema umbrella but outside Chadema they stand no chance. Take them back and end CCM reign.
Lesson number four is unity will send a powerful message across the board Chadema is ready and willing to lead.
Last lesson is pragmatism is a missing link. I have scoured the Internet to see whether Chadema have a blueprint to bag this election I found none that is workable.
Chadema’s election clarion that says, “no reform no election” is the weakest link. The chain is as strong as the weakest link.
I understand why Chadema believes without a levelled play field their chances of winning the election is doomed but African history tells a different story.
Both Senegal and Botswana won soundly despite the election playing ground working against them. Chadema had to believe it can win in this election template that has fathomed loopholes to massively rig the elections.
CCM knows it is a wreck train waiting to happen this is why all reforms are window dressing for to do otherwise is akin of committing political suicide.
Lesson number five, Chadema should keep singing that clarion but quietly preparing to storm to the state House with a Tsunami like election win.
Never forget if you believe nothing is IMPOSSIBLE to those who doubt not.
I am doubtless Chadema will form the next government and the only thing that stands in their way is the mental blocks of unbelief. Unblock yourself and begin to believe.
Then you will walk in the supernatural where winning is only natural since it is in your DNA.
Do not be like those doubting Israelis during the days of prophet Moses who looked at their physical limitations but didn’t give God the glory and believe in Him who is the author and the finisher of our faith.
Read more about CCM and Chadema Trade Blame Amid Political Abductions and Violence in Tanzania
