As COP29 unfolds in Baku, Azerbaijan, since it began on 11 November 2024, a stark contrast to previous climate summits is becoming evident. While the world’s leaders gather to address the climate crisis, participants grapple with severe economic pressures, such as soaring costs for transport, accommodations, and basic services.
With more than 70,000 attendees—both in person and virtual—this year’s summit faces a unique set of challenges exacerbated by the global economic downturn.
These experiences were surprising compared to previous experiences from other COPs, and they evoked quite different feelings, at least for some participants.
Little did they know that the recent pandemic (COVID-19) and subsequent economic recession worldwide may have such impacts, particularly on energy, food supplies, employment, the collapse of the housing sector, and the general market tumbling.
In turn, all other sectors have succumbed to the trickle-down effects, which may explain the abnormal situation in this current COP29.
To give a snapshot, this COP29 is the second on record, with approximately 72,753 people, including virtual participants, registered to attend. However, compared to Dubai COP28, this has 15,000 participants, making a drastic fall in the record of participants compared to seven years in a row where each kept the record higher until this time.
Of particular interest is that the host country has the largest number of participants, about 2,229 registered, followed by Brazil with 1,914 representatives and Turkey with 1,862, making the most represented countries in COP29.
Surprisingly, China, which had previously recorded many participants, has about 969 participants and stands fifth in representation. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has 1,011 representatives, making it fourth on the list.
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These numbers give a crystal-clear picture of the pounding pressure exerted towards accommodation, food, transport and essentially all sectors.
At the last COP, fossil fuel lobbyists outnumbered representatives of scientific institutions, Indigenous communities and vulnerable nations,” said former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.
The host country has also been accused of a pro-active position towards fossil fuels as it is among the oil and gas producers’ nations. One top official has been using the same COP meeting to lobby for fossil fuel continuation, saying it’s a gift from God and market needs, and the people also need it.
Other representatives from small islands are also severely affected by climate change, and their concerns are barely addressed under the current nature of COPs.
Alliance of Small Island States representatives said they worry that their small island voice will be excluded if decisions are made among the big emitters at forums such as the G20 group of richer nations.
So, the COPs operate in isolation from the G20 group, where rich nations that are the most polluters are obliged to support the COPs’ outcomes meeting to ponder the matter.
Leaving the distresses aside, what else was achieved amongst the meeting objectives? Several achievements are recorded so far as gestures that COP29, among others, will show the turning point. As said earlier, this COP is expected to wind up the unfinished businesses arising from COP28 in Dubai.
This is a litmus paper for evaluating the success of this COP; less of that, it will be just a business-as-usual COP. Although the debates are ongoing, we can snip out some early indicators regarding the direction towards achieving a substantial result from this COP.
What is the Core of Criticisms?
While the hot debates and tough negotiations in these critical agendas are ongoing, at least turning towards the second week now, there are critiques that the current COP process is not delivering the expected results.
The motive came after the letter from prominent experts and senior individuals on the current process through COP, which was said to be inefficient in delivering the quick anticipated results. The COPs suggested several improvements in the processes if they were to be achieved succinctly.
Improving the selection of COP presidencies whereby this call was meant to ensure the precedencies align with agendas and not against the objectives. This came after agendas like the transition from fossil fuels, which was intended to be pushed but unfortunately fell short of reasonable support.
Azerbaijan, a president for this COP, is also among the producers of fossil fuels (oil and gas) and is still inspired to continue producing and supplying fossil fuels in the market.
At the same time, it is expected to lead to the transition from fossil fuels. The previous COP28, also hosted in Dubai, was again the prominent producer and dealer of fossil fuels and anticipated leader of this transition.
These were seen as hypocritical and contested positions that claimed to be a barrier to successfully delivering climate agendas. It resonates well that they must stand against their motives, exposing the countries to conflicting positions.
The current structure of COPs is insufficient and inefficient in delivering quick and exponential speed and scale. In fact, it was acknowledged that several deliverables have been attained, but further improvement and boldness are needed to force the countries to act.
It was also said that COPs are essential and irreplaceable vehicles for multilateral, multisectoral systemic needs worldwide. However, they require overhauling to make them work accordingly to attain the main goal of fixing climate change.
The satire about the COPs also focuses on the massive participation, with the summits welcoming thousands of participants, including political leaders. Surprisingly, considering the number of participants worldwide, little attention is paid to the carbon footprint.
Travel by individuals, services, and other supplies to meet the demands and needs during the two-week stay contributes handsomely to increasing the carbon footprint and souring the city’s carrying capacity.
Besides, tons of unimaginable waste are generated in such gatherings, leaving alone the energy type and source for running the facilities around the venue.
The current venue was initially opened in 1995 for the Olympic venue and was assumed to be sustainably operating, but it seems to be not as sustainable as planned. In a few words, the COPs are acting as agents of their failure while unable to advocate for what they stand for.
By looking through another lens, the recent election, which witnessed Donald Trump in the presidency of the USA, has also turned to a sort of trauma with psychological fare whereby the climate denial is reaping to the maximum.
The USA under Trump is believed to be less concerned about the climate change agenda, which will affect America’s position throughout the process.
It is a big blow as America is among the anticipated critical stakeholders who have become quite a dodge for various climate actions. At the same time, Argentina withdrew from the negotiation, while the French minister cancelled her participation in COP29.
It is coupled with more division than unity as more global leaders have decided to skip. Papua New Guinea (PNG) also pulled out of the negotiation, claiming that ‘COPs are filled with empty promises and inaction’, a protest attesting to their unsatisfied responses from big nations with large carbon footprints but less support for victims of climate change.
Along the same line, the other large economies such as China, Germany, India, and, of course, the USA and France are early indications of binding commitment.
The geopolitical situation of these economies, which are major players in the climate politics landscape, and the complexities accompanying the COP.
The outlook for COP29 demonstrates the global community’s desire to address the tragedy of climate change. However, the letter from the then-insiders’ opinions unveiled a serious issue of concern.
It does not dismiss the COPs’ contribution. Still, it signals the need to restructure and re-strategize the process from business as usual to a very focused and intent procedure.
It unpacks the untold reality beneath the process and calls for a break from business as usual, which, given the current situation, seems not to be meeting the needs.
If the cost of averting climate change is sounding higher and avoided by the developed economies, it is obvious that the repair will be at least twofold or even more.
The Finance COP should consider this fact and ensure that a major financial goal is attained to boost faster and more robust climate actions globally.
