Succession of the current chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat, is on shaping the future of Africa.
It is a three-horse race involving Djibouti Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Kenyan former Prime Minister Raila Amollo Odinga and Madagascar Richard Randriamandrato, former Foreign Minister.
While it looks like a three-way race in substance on paper, judging from endorsements, Madagascar Richard Randriamandrato, former Foreign Minister, impresses as an underdog with an outside chance of upsetting the first two.
This article reviews the candidates’ visions endorsement garnered and interrogates their reasons.
The AU Commission comprises Portfolios: Peace and Security, Political Affairs, Trade and Industry, Infrastructure and Energy, Social Affairs, Rural Economy and Agriculture, Human Resources, Science and Technology, and Economic Affairs.
The chairperson will be its chief executive officer. Let us review the visions of the three candidates.
AU Visions of the 3 AUC Candidates
A vision from Djibouti candidate, Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf. He promises to implement AU Agenda 2063, which the AU endorsed with its 10-year implementation plans.
The AUC’s primary role is to advance the implementation of decisions made by heads of state and government. This requires innovative leadership and determination to enact decisions.
He says players must develop more coherent and effective working methods among the AUC, regional economic communities (RECs) and member states.
He will focus on AUC internal reforms, selecting candidates in every sector, and bolstering the African Peace and Security Architecture.
Peace and security are prerequisites for sustainable development. Another urgent issue he raised was migration.
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We must create opportunities for Africa’s youth to thrive at home rather than having them undertake dangerous journeys to other parts of the world.
This includes transforming agriculture into a viable job provider through smart agriculture practices, water resource management and agribusiness development.
A well-implemented plan for agricultural transformation can create jobs for youth and drive economic growth.
Industrial transformation is also essential. African countries must add value to their raw materials instead of exporting unprocessed.
Local value addition can create employment and generate and keep wealth in Africa. Every country has the potential to transform its resources locally, and the AU can support member states in achieving this.
Climate change requires urgent attention. Despite being the least responsible for global pollution, Africa bears the brunt of its effects.
Initiatives such as the Loss and Damages Fund, established during COP28, must be implemented to help African countries adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The AU should amplify Africa’s voice in global climate discussions to ensure the continent receives the support it needs.
Another imperative is boosting intra-African trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
While the framework has been in place since 2017, and many countries have ratified it, intra-African trade remains at a mere 18% compared to 80% of trade conducted with the rest of the world.
Existing mechanisms such as the African Trade Observatory, payment systems and tariff monitoring tools must be fully operational.
For example, a functional African payment system that bypasses reliance on foreign currencies, such as the dollar, would significantly reduce transaction costs and enhance trade efficiency.
The first 10-year plan of Agenda 2063 provides a clear roadmap. Now,, the focus must shift to raising performance and ensuring tangible results.
The AU must build on its progress and work with member states to address issues.
If elected, I will advance these priorities, ensuring that Africa’s youth, economies and peace efforts are at the forefront of the AUC agenda.
How Can AfCFTA be Enhanced?
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a free trade area encompassing most of Africa. It was established in 2018 by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, which has 43 parties and another 11 signatories, making it the largest free-trade area by number of Member states after the World Trade Organization and the largest in population and geographic size, spanning 1.3 billion people across the world’s second-largest continent.
The free movement of people, capital and goods must be addressed urgently. While tariff barriers are relatively straightforward to manage through concessions and exceptions, non-tariff barriers are complex.
Building trust and confidence among African nations and their citizens is essential to allow free movement for trade.
The AU passport must be fully recognised, implemented and accepted at all borders to facilitate this.
The second need is an efficient payment system. For example, when Djibouti trades with South Africa, each should be able to use its own currency.
If Djibouti buys goods from South Africa, the rand should be accepted and vice versa. This can compensate for potential losses from exchange rate fluctuations or other currency issues.
The third pillar is infrastructure. Without robust cross-border infrastructure — roads, railways and transport corridors — it becomes nearly impossible to move goods efficiently between countries.
The AU Development Agency-New Partnership for Africa’s Development has a crucial role to play in supporting the development of infrastructure projects.
A vision from Kenyan Raila Odinga, Former prime minister of Kenya.
All candidates espouse the vision covered by Djibouti candidate Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.
No need for repetition. Raila will push for two Permanent Security seats for Africa in the UN, end visa requirements among African states, rearrange the global financial infrastructure, curb extortionate interest payments to global financial institutions, transform African economies, and focus on youth and women empowerment.
Seychelles’ candidate withdrew and endorsed Raila Amollo Odinga. Somalia candidate had resigned too but did not support Raila Amollo Odinga.
The African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson race has highlighted divisions within the EAC, with Somalia refusing to endorse Raila Odinga’s candidacy.
This decision is influenced by historical tensions, competing national interests, and strategic considerations that reflect the complexities of regional diplomacy.
Somalia’s rejection of Raila Odinga’s bid is also rooted in longstanding tensions with Kenya.
Disputes over maritime borders, accusations of interference in Somalia’s internal affairs, and competing strategic interests have strained diplomatic ties between the two nations.
Being a central figure in Kenyan politics, Raila faces scepticism from Somalia, which views his potential chairmanship as possibly favouring Kenyan geopolitical interests.
This refusal aligns with a broader trend of Somalia prioritizing national sovereignty and regional autonomy in its foreign policy decisions.
By supporting a Somali candidate, Mogadishu sought to assert its growing role within continental and global political circles.
Somalia ultimately withdrew their candidacy and did not indicate which candidate she would support. However, political intuition suggests Somalia will vote for the Djibouti candidate, Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.
A vision from Madagascar Richard Randriamandrato, Former Foreign Minister. In October 2022, he was sacked for voting for the resolution to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Madagascar stated that, at that time, he had violated the foreign policy protocol of neutrality. His chances of winning are slim since he is yet to receive notable endorsements.
In the implementation of Agenda 2063 and before strategic planning, he has emphasised a need to restock the progress made since the adoption of the agenda.
Choices of priorities ought to be based on lessons learnt towards achievable goals after incorporating geopolitical challenges and the evolving context of international relations.
The role of the AUC is to provide the AU with the technical and managerial impetus necessary to maintain the 2015 momentum without losing sight of the diplomatic and political aspects linked to the exercise of this institutional leadership.
Political and security challenges ought to be resolved—establishing peace between border countries. The AU must learn from its mediation experience.
Operational and mission review is unavoidable. AU, EU and UN have been criticised for the ineffectiveness of their missions. This must end.
AU must continue its dedication to being part of global institutions that ensure the African voice is heard.
Economic technologies linked to the future should be taken in a stride, particularly emerging ones such as digital ones. Africa is bedevilled with infrastructural inadequacies across the board.
Access and infrastructural development should be prioritized, and external partners should be encouraged to meet the AU agenda.
Performance-related evaluation of regional and sub-regional organizations is imperative to bring them to implement the AU agenda. Managerial improvement is needed. Disruptions caused by generative AI should be addressed.
Endorsements Bagged, So Far
Raila Amollo Odinga has, on paper, amassed 19 countries, namely Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan,
Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Africa, Nigeria, Somalia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Seychelles, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Algeria, Angola, Congo and Kenya.
These 19 nations have given promissory notes to Baba Amollo, but how they will vote time will tell.
Mahamoud Ali Youssouf’s endorsements are a well-guarded secret, albeit I suspect Somalia, Algeria, and South Africa were inclined to vote for him for a long time.
The first two nations were motivated by identity politics, but South Africa could be out of spite of Kenyan snub of SADC and joining COMESA.
The election is not about visions but reinforcing identity. Politicization has defied regional economic out and fits as countries side with a candidate with whom they share many commonalities.
Raila Amollo Odinga’s support is in Southern Africa, while Mahamoud Ali Youssouf is in Northern Africa and Islamic nations.
How the vote goes will determine or indicate whether African integration has transcended colonial, post-colonial, and religious variables that determine how Africans see and value themselves.
If I were to pick the most deserving candidate, I would unhesitatingly go for Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.
He has intellectual energy, unlike Baba Amollo, who was gibberish and seemed detached and out of touch with reality during the interview.
The truth should come out fast: Kenya is turning the AU into her dumpster. The Ruto regime wants nothing to do with Baba Amollo; this is the only reason they support his candidacy.
They hope Raila will keep his peace once he votes to stick at Addis Ababa, disturbing them not with his threats of never-ending demos.
However, Tanzania is informed by regional identity politics rather than the quality of the candidates who endorse Baba Amollo. How pathetic!
Are we Africans, first and foremost, or are we still enslaved in our regional cocoons? This election has revealed Africa’s weakness towards smooth integration.
The most important question could be: has Africa overcome past barriers to continental integration, or is it still an uphill battle?
We will soon find out.
