Politics, as Aristotle famously argued, is the highest form of human association, one that defines the governance of society through structured competition, negotiation, and persuasion (Aristotle, Politics). In the Tanzanian context, the 2025 general election presents a certain reality in which President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s re-election appears not only probable but structurally on intense. Political science, through its analytical rigor, provides a compelling framework to explain why the opposition finds itself in a quagmire of internal contradictions, economic fragility, and strategic miscalculations.
Political theorist Giovanni Sartori, in Parties and Party Systems,describes effective political opposition as an entity capable of institutionalizing internal coherence, strategic adaptability, and alternative governance credibility. However, Tanzania’s main opposition, particularly Chadema, has exhibited an almost cyclical pattern of internal discord that has weakened its electoral viability. The recent internal elections exposed not only factionalism but also the fundamental inability of opposition figures to construct a united ideological and organizational front.
Post-electoral wounds, as seen in cases from Kenya’s ODM and Nigeria’s PDP, often leave parties more fractured than fortified. The internal contest within Chadema mirrored such historical trajectories, exposing mistrust among party elites and creating an irreversible power struggle. In such circumstances, as Robert Dahl’s Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition suggests, an opposition that is internally divided is structurally unable to mount a credible electoral challenge.
Again, a foundational principle in political economy, as posited by Adam Przeworski in Democracy and Development, is that economic stability often translates into political continuity. President Samia’s CCM has strategically capitalized on economic programs that, while imperfect, provide a comparative advantage against an opposition grappling with financial disorganization.
Tanzania’s opposition, particularly Chadema, lacks the institutionalized economic backbone that would allow it to challenge the ruling party beyond rhetorical discontent. Economic asymmetry between ruling and opposition parties has historically determined electoral outcomes, as seen in Uganda (NRM’s dominance) and Rwanda (RPF’s political consolidation). Without financial fortitude, opposition efforts remain aspirational rather than executable.
There’s yet another issue, Harold Lasswell, a pioneer in political communication, emphasized in Propaganda Technique in the World War that political timing is often more critical than political messaging. The opposition’s inability to dictate the political tempo—allowing CCM to continuously set the national agenda—has further rendered its electoral prospects bleak.
President Samia’s government has effectively sequenced major political reconciliations, strategic economic decisions, and diplomatic re-engagements at intervals that consolidate her narrative. The release of opposition leaders, the economic stimulus programs, and the gradual restructuring of government institutions have all been timed in a manner that keeps the opposition perpetually reactive rather than proactive.
A peculiar yet significant weakness of Tanzania’s opposition is its intellectual outsourcing to diaspora-based think tanks whose understanding of political strategy is often detached from local realities. Antonio Gramsci, in Selections from the Prison Notebooks, warned against “organic intellectuals” who exist in ideological spheres disconnected from practical political engagement.
The opposition’s reliance on external figures whose political theories are often shaped by Western democratic models that do not translate to the Tanzanian context has led to miscalculations on campaign structuring, voter mobilization, and messaging. The belief in a singular transformative moment, rather than a gradual institutional buildup, has left the opposition vulnerable to strategic stagnation.
From a purely academic standpoint, the 2025 election presents itself as a textbook case of electoral inevitability. With opposition parties structurally weakened by internal rifts, economically disadvantaged against a resource-backed ruling party, strategically outmaneuvered in narrative timing, and intellectually misguided by out-of-touch think tanks, the path to President Samia’s second term is reinforced by political science, not mere speculation.
As Machiavelli concluded in *The Prince, politics is not about what should be but about what is—and what is, in the Tanzanian context, points towards a resounding electoral outcome in favor of the incumbent.
Read more about Welcoming 2025: A Year for Peaceful Elections and Respect for Citizens’ Choices in Tanzania