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The Uncertain Future of Tanzania’s Energy: Will the Lights Stay On? What About Blackouts?

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The Grass is Always Greener on the Other Side’ implies that most people often think there is joy in what they do not possess and are likely to ignore what they possess, lest they forget that not all that glitters are gold. There is always an illusion in most cases. Regardless of the state of undecided attempts on production, transmissions, energy and electricity distribution, both require sufficient and balanced scrutiny as they all matter in the equation.

It is very much aligned with the ‘theory of supply and demand.’ In this theory, supply always affects demand and vice versa; together, they impact price and services. Although the case of electricity supply in Tanzania may be more of a service than a business (government regulation and taxes), the theory still holds water.

Electric production, transmission, and distribution are urgent and priority undertakings in any economy. They power the engines in industrial settings, vehicles on the road, houses and urban centres, fridges, stoves, etc. Electricity is an essential basic need in all settings, rural or urban and industrialized areas.

To meet this increasing demand, diversification and increased production are needed, which automatically reflects on the transmission and distribution sides. Therefore, it calls for extending the identification and stretching towards other sources directly connected to this Triple redundancy system (production, transmission, and Distribution).

Tanzania’s common energy sources include thermal, hydro, and renewable sources. However, the country is trying to shift from non-renewable to renewable sources of electricity generation, given the abundant and diverse indigenous energy resources that are not yet fully exploited, mainly due to a lack of planning, financial constraints, and poor transmission and distribution (T&D) network.

However, recently, Tanzania embarked on a massive transformation after attaining a major goal in electricity production. Adding about 705 megawatts out of 2115 megawatts from Julius Nyerere Hydro Power Plant (JNHPP) alone to the national grid was a great booster and is said to have potentially stabilized supply.

READ In-depth Project Overview: Julius Nyerere Hydroelectric Power Project Ready to Go LIVE!

It is, therefore, a frog jump in the side of production and, given the initiative above, signalling now that there is a shining future in electricity production. More mini-grids are under construction, bringing pride to clean energy while fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and strategy towards eradicating energy poverty, particularly in developing countries.

The supply side of the equation is now driven by demand; whatever is produced now needs to reach the demand side. Bridging these two sides is a multifaceted task under Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO). Essentially, TANESCO owns the majority of the country’s generation and is the sole authority responsible for the development and operation of transmission and distribution of electricity in the country.

They are now the key player, and given that it is a state-owned company, it should have access to the most possible resources to execute the needfully. Although there are few private companies in the value chain, TANESCO is still the giant supplying 98% of electricity; in Zanzibar, much is done by Zanzibar Electricity Corporation (ZECO), but production is from TANESCO.

In some parts, especially rural areas, the Rural Energy Agency (REA) is responsible for expanding the grid serving isolated communities. The established Rural Energy Board (REB), the Rural Energy Fund (REF), and the REA aim to promote, stimulate, and facilitate access to modern energy services in rural areas.

Is Blackout Coming to an End?

This is the question of craving that most people wish to hear after decades of living in such a situation. Probably Yes, due to a few important issues as they are in control so far. It may not be because of inhuman factors out of human control. However, the blackout is among other causes of weakness on the distribution side, although we have also had a deficit in production.

Production was merely sabotaged by old and overloaded infrastructure, causing many downs and blackouts. Now that the supply is improved, we hope for seamless, stable supplies. Nonetheless, some continued interruptions are mainly caused by old and outdated infrastructure, such as poles, wires, and circuits along the transmission lines. This will highly depend on the extent of investing in upgrading the system; otherwise, the nightmare will continue uninterrupted.

Weather is another aspect to consider to avoid blackouts. In some circumstances, the distribution lines have been affected by floods, erosions, and storms. Transmission lines are often interrupted, causing circuit breakers in the system, especially in distribution lines in city centres.

General unpredicted weather conditions change, causing unprecedented impacts that do not spare the electricity distribution facilities, which are also often at the production points. Balancing two extremes of temperature and precipitation, which is typically an unavoidable condition, is a critical challenge.

READ RELATED ARTICLE: How Can We Balance Temperature and Precipitation? A Lesson Worth Learning for Our Daily Life

Any extreme among these causes impacts the triple redundancy system and ultimately impacts supply and demand equally. Unfortunately, in most cases, these extremes result from human-induced factors and result in unpredictable and deadly reactions.

Either way, at production, transmission, or distribution, some details require attention to ensure reliable and adequate supplies. The financial injection into these three areas of power supply is essential and can rescue us from blackouts. Investing in this sector is so important because it is powering other sectors.

The energy sector in Tanzania has been a lifelong digger in the national coffer, and several public embezzlement scandals have never been isolated from this sector. Regarding the energy crisis in the country, we have had several cases in the past, such as IPTL, Richmond, and whatnot.

This time around, we speculate that the current production and ongoing initiatives in transmission and distribution are likely to leap into the trap and remain an amicable solution to the country’s blackout. We anticipate a working and corruption-free institution able to spearhead this major transformation, not only the reshuffle of the ministry officers.

The current trend will rescue the country after the decision not to sit on the fence or admire the grasses on the other side of the fence but keep on with plans to develop the triple redundancy system. If the good intention is maintained, the blackout may remain a history, and the puzzle will be solved.

However, more investment is needed, such as injecting more funds into various sources, including off-grid sources, to cope with increasing demand associated with population increase and expansion of settlements and industries. All the current developments require energy, particularly clean energy sources. It is high time now that increasing production also needs to consider major bias into renewable energy to reduce emissions.

Tanzania’s diverse energy sources range from hydro, natural gas, coal, solar, wind, and biomass. Most challenges are related to financial constraints, especially initial costs and infrastructure, which contribute to losses and outdated grid capacity, technical limitations, regulatory and policy issues, and some environmental issues, which hinder.

All these require efforts from the government, private sector, and community. The challenges largely connected to land use require a participatory approach to create a long-lasting solution while maintaining peace and harmony.

Dr. Emanueli Ndossi, a seasoned EIA and EA Expert, directs J & Enviroconsult (T) Ltd, with over a decade of experience. His expertise covers Project Management, Monitoring, and Evaluation (M&E) for comprehensive environmental assessments. Dr. Ndossi, with impactful roles in WCST, TFCG, and the University of Queensland, has shaped conservation efforts work spans diverse sectors, contributing to sustainable practices in tourism and conservation. Dr. Ndossi holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Science from the University of Göttingen and an M.Sc. in Environmental Management from the University of Queensland. His active engagement in organizations like ISIE, Carbon Lab, Soil Science Society of Germany, WCST, and FCC showcases his significant contributions to the environmental field.

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