The axing of Nape Nnauye and January Makamba from their ministerial dockets has ignited a lively debate about what have they trespassed to merit this. On the surface, the pedestal of political dynasties being stratified in our political infrastructure has been dealt a strategic blow but the appointment of Mahmoud Thabit Kombo as a foreign affairs Caesar has quickly nullified that perception. In this discourse, I will pinpoint my views on why these changes were inescapable albeit the official version remains mum.
January Makamba and Nape Nnauye, both scions of political heavyweights in Tanzania, have shared similar career trajectories. Each was dismissed by former President, the late Dr. John Pombe Magufuli due to their involvement with former CCM leaders. These leaders were contesting maligning reports by media outlets aligned with certain CCM rivals and were frustrated by negative coverage that seemed orchestrated by the party itself.
Following allegations of embezzlement and abuse of power within CCM, as reported by a daily tabloid, January Makamba and Nape Nnauye were recorded strategizing on how to counter the claims against their mentors.
After being dismissed, Nnauye publicly retracted his previous statements and apologized to President Magufuli, who accepted his apology but did not reinstate him to the cabinet before his passing. Makamba also apologized, and although his apology was accepted, he remained out of favour.
After a period of relative obscurity, January Makamba and Nape Nnauye resurfaced during the 2020 elections. They faced little opposition in the CCM primaries, securing their parliamentary nominations with ease. However, their electoral campaigns drew significant attention when Chadema made vigorous attempts to unseat them, leading to a controversial conclusion.
In Nape Nnauye’s case, his nearest Chadema competitor was arrested on allegations of attempting to bribe an election supervisor with Tshs 10 million in the Mtama constituency. Although the Chadema candidate’s nomination forms were seized by Takukuru officers, the case never went to court. After Nnauye was declared the winner by default, his opponent was unconditionally released.
In the case of Makamba, the matter was less straightforward. The Chadema aspirant for the Bumbuli constituency was disqualified under dubious templates after his nomination forms did not attach his photographs, a matter that could have been swiftly rectified by instructing him to bring the missing photos.
Makamba like Nape romped back to the Parliament unopposed depriving voters of their constitutional right to choose their leaders. Both Nape and Makamba cannot be said to be popular in their constituencies after leaping back to parliament unopposed. Under the new election laws, they could still face voters who will vote yes or no limiting the choices available.
Also, read: Tanzania Startup Policy to Tackle Startup Challenges by Year-End, Announces Nape Nnauye
The new election laws did not assert constitutional qualifications to run for public office could not be nullified by Independent National Election Commission (INEC) rules and regulations. So, the root causes of the deprivation of opposition candidates from running for office were left intact. Most likely, INEC will disqualify some opposition figures from running, and let CCM run on their own akin to being elected unopposed under the new election laws.
In the current mystery and intrigues of why both Nape and Makamba were axed, the reasons are different with each carrying his own cross. When Makamba was the Minister for Energy he was accused of procurement of software that cost tens of millions of dollars but his elevation to the powerful foreign ministry quelled the clamour for his removal.
There were those who said the appointer did not care about graft allegations while others said the charges were cooked to tarnish Makamba’s good image.
Nape Nnauye’s public image has drawn mixed reactions, with some criticizing him for perceived arrogance and an overbearing attitude. Despite efforts to counteract these negative perceptions, his responses have occasionally intensified criticism.
Nape has been controversially associated with advocating for digital elections, which critics argue could facilitate easier rigging and increase mistrust due to the opacity of such systems. Additionally, concerns have been raised that digital voting could lead to voter apathy, as the process may be seen as unverifiable.
During the Magufuli administration, Nape Nnauye played a key role in preventing parliamentary proceedings from being broadcast to the public. Many believed this was because opposition MPs were seen as outperforming the CCM majority in Parliament, prompting the CCM to initiate a blackout to conceal their perceived shortcomings.
Contrastingly, during the 2010 elections, Tido Mhando at TBC1 pioneered a more open approach by broadcasting political debates that allowed candidates to present their policies and respond to audience questions. These debates showcased a new level of political openness, but they also highlighted the superior debating skills of opposition candidates, leading to discomfort within CCM.
As a result, CCM eventually chose to withdraw their candidates from such public scrutiny, fearing they could not match the opposition’s prowess in these debates.
The CCM’s approach during the Magufuli era, reflected by the blackout of Bunge (Parliament) proceedings, demonstrated a deliberate attempt to limit public access to information about their elected officials’ performance. This lack of transparency greatly hindered accountability.
Following the 2020 elections, in which CCM secured a commanding majority amid controversy, and after the sudden death of President Magufuli, President Samia Suluhu Hassan made significant strides in restoring transparency by resuming the public broadcasting of Bunge sessions. This change marked a return to more open governance.
Nape Nnauye’s recent political controversies stem from remarks he made in Kashaya, Bukoba, where he claimed expertise in electoral manipulation, suggesting that election outcomes are determined not by votes, but by those who count and announce results, thereby accusing the INEC of rampant electoral fraud. He further remarked that after manipulating elections, those involved often seek divine forgiveness for their actions.
My question has always been: can God be mocked seeing if we sin wilfully there is no remission of sin but a fearful expectation of judgement? Still simpering, he cautioned the opposition to brace themselves up for the ride of their lives!
Disgust ensued after his roadside bombshell that some said had done irreversible damage to President Samia Suluhu Hassan well received the 4R initiative that in a nutshell aimed to reconcile the nation from past injustices including electoral ones.
A few days later Nape was relieved of his duties despite his half-hearted and insincere apologies advancing a spurious expiation that he was merely joking. Joking on matters of law and the sanctity of our elections was unacceptable.
Makamba matters are not straightforward just like his reelection to the Augusta House in 2020. He seems to flourish miring in mysteries, intrigues and contentions. Since he had survived the software saga one can reasonably assume that did not lead to his removal. No sooner had he been promoted to the foreign docket than President Samia had visited his daddy.
The reason is arcane but one can reasonably suspect was to clear the air over the ministerial reshuffle and his beloved son’s hiccups at the Ministry of Energy. I have no evidence to support my fertile imagination beyond a gut feeling of intuitive proportions.
A few months back, a controversy erupted involving Mange Kimambi, a former CCM supporter turned political outsider. In her provocative exposé, which lacked concrete evidence, Kimambi implicated high-ranking officials and expressed concern that January Makamba could be removed from the cabinet due to his family’s political connections.
She warned his sister to distance herself to avoid guilt by association. Whether this contributed to Makamba’s dismissal remains uncertain as paranoia and suspicion of disloyalty loom large over this administration.
Critics who have labelled President Samia’s tenure as merely transitional may have unintentionally fostered an atmosphere of mistrust and vengeance. However, if these are not the underlying reasons, perhaps past allegations against Makamba are catching up with him, potentially in an upcoming CAG report.
Regardless, Makamba’s presidential aspirations appear shattered, as history shows that, post-Nyerere, no Tanzanian has risen to the presidency without first serving as a cabinet member.
Mahmoud Thabit Kombo’s recent promotion is intriguing yet unsurprising. This development follows the sudden resignation of another Zanzibari deputy minister of foreign affairs, who cited personal reasons but seemed to have been compelled to step down. Such maneuvers are not unprecedented.
During Dr. Magufuli’s tenure, presidential appointees were often removed to make way for favored candidates in the cabinet. This practice sparked widespread speculation and disbelief among netizens, who questioned why anyone would willingly give up such a coveted role—one that could resolve many personal financial issues.
The general consensus among online communities was that the resignation was not voluntary but a strategic move to accommodate another Zanzibari in the cabinet. Kombo, who comes from a political dynasty, is not directly linked to the dismissals of figures like Nape and Makamba.
Given the political dynamics within the union, it’s unusual for two Zanzibaris to hold all significant positions simultaneously—hence the need for one to make way for another. Kombo’s background is not well-known, suggesting he may operate effectively behind the scenes. Whether this holds true will become apparent in time.
Kombo’s appointment raises significant political concerns. It appears to signal a push to groom another descendant from the influential Zanzibari political dynasties for a major national role post-2030, suggesting a calculated move given the public fatigue with the Karume and Mwinyi families dominating politics.
The populace craves fresh leadership that doesn’t echo the past, and these families currently lack viable political heirs, with many potential successors either aligning with opposition forces or lacking the necessary leadership skills.
President Samia may face significant challenges in 2030, as anti-Zanzibari sentiment is deeply entrenched in the Mainland. Similar to the political climate of 1995, the 2030 succession could prove particularly contentious for a Zanzibari candidate aiming for the Union presidency.
Mainlanders, while often concealing their true sentiments, especially during an incumbent’s first term, may openly resist a Zanzibari presidency, viewing it almost as a foreign rule, tolerable only as a transient phase. This underlying tension has intensified under President Samia’s administration, signalling tough political navigation ahead.
If Mainlanders perceive a scheme to exclude them from the Union presidency, favouring prolonged Zanzibari leadership, significant unrest could ensue. As observed by former Union President Ali Hassan Mwinyi in 1995, regardless of a Zanzibari’s qualifications, Mainlanders resist the idea of consecutive presidential terms from Zanzibar. Mwinyi had believed Salim Ahmed Salim was the ideal successor, but Mainlander sentiment was strongly opposed.
This resistance led to the formation of the G-55, a parliamentary group committed to preventing a Zanzibari succession in the presidency, driven by the fear of becoming subordinate in their own country. This protective instinct is a natural response to perceived threats to regional autonomy and identity.
Also, read: Mainland Opposition Blames Zanzibaris for National Woes, Union Structure Debated
Moreover, there’s a widespread perception that major appointments are disproportionately directed towards Zanzibar, a concern seldom expressed openly due to the sensitive nature of the issue.
For example, why a Zanzibari will be appointed to Mainland regional administration which is not a union matter, and there is no Mainlander appointed in similar positions in Zanzibar? Why do plum jobs in non-union rich parastatals go to Zanzibari with Mainlanders’ population several folds when compared to Zanzibar?
A saying that reminds us: “…Wengi wape au usipowapa watajichukulia.” is relevant in this case. With the way natural resources and prime lands are being dished out to foreigners, the social tensions are palpable and will climax in 2030 leaving Kombo in such a precarious position that he will not succeed President Samia Suluhu Hassan.
In 2030, a middle-aged Christian Mainlander will be coronated as president cooling off the runaway dissatisfaction with the union structure, albeit temporarily.
Hoping for a happy ending, both Nape and Makamba may still salvage their political careers after the 2025 elections knowing the CCM conveyor belt is not unforgiving. Many political outcasts were recalled and cleared of any wrongdoing. The duet has a reason to stay optimistic and upbeat, with no hard feelings.
Kombo may never be president of the union but will be strategically placed to lead Zanzibar or accept a second spot in the union. The politics will not favour him to succeed President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Not now, not ever!
